Happy hump day, !

This week we dive into the $25T Construction Market and the Private Equity opportunity in this stable growing space.

Global buyouts are rebounding with investment values hitting $601.99B in 2024, but exit activity, while improving, still lags far behind 2021’s peak, leaving dealmakers to navigate a challenging liquidity landscape.

Private credit is surging as giants like Oaktree and Blackstone raise billions for distressed debt and complex deals, but with high rates and market uncertainty, the real question is whether they’re seizing opportunities or taking on too much risk.

BlackRock’s acquisition of two Panama Canal ports isn’t just an M&A deal—it’s a geopolitical move framed by U.S. leaders as a push to counter China’s influence in Latin America, blurring the lines between private equity and foreign policy.

— PE150 Team

Table of Contents

• Data Dive

• Trend of the Week

• Liquidity Corner

• Deal of the Week

• Private Credit

• Macro View

• This Week in History

• Interesting Articles

• Tweet of the Week

PE and Construction—A Shaky 2024, But the Foundation is Solid

Private equity’s love affair with the construction sector hit some turbulence in 2024. Deal volume nosedived to 140 transactions—almost half of 2021’s record 266 deals. Total deal value? Also down. Rising interest rates and a cautious lending environment have sponsors thinking twice before breaking ground on new investments​.

But let’s not mistake a slowdown for a standstill. Infrastructure demand is surging, fueled by government incentives from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Private equity firms are sitting on a mountain of dry powder—$120B in infrastructure funds alone—waiting for the right opportunity​.

Where’s the action? Manufacturing construction is booming, thanks to federal reshoring policies. Think semiconductor plants, EV battery factories, and logistics hubs. Meanwhile, nonresidential construction is being propped up by power, water supply, and climate-resilient projects​.

The bottom line: While 2024 isn’t breaking records, PE’s long-term bet on construction remains intact. As rates stabilize, expect firms to shift from risk-off to deal-making mode—because no one wants to miss the next infrastructure boom.

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The Return of Sky-High Multiples

The Market Has Spoken—And It's Buying High. Private equity buyout multiples are creeping back toward their 2021–22 highs, with median entry EBITDA multiples hitting 11.9x in 2024. After a dip in 2023, dealmakers are paying up again—either out of confidence or necessity. Some of this surge is due to better-quality assets hitting the market, but it's also a sign that sponsors are eager to deploy dry powder.

From Sticker Shock to Strategic Plays. In 2009, PE firms were paying 6.5x EBITDA for buyouts. Fast-forward to today, and that number has nearly doubled. At an annual growth rate of 4.1%, that’s faster than inflation, GDP, and most fund managers’ hairlines receding from stress.

What’s Next? With financing costs still high, expect more structured deals, seller financing, and creative earnouts to make these valuations work. But if 2024 is proving anything, it’s that cheap deals are a relic of the past.

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Private Equity's Liquidity Crunch: The Comeback?

After a two-year slump, global buyouts are showing signs of life. Investment values rebounded to $601.99B in 2024, while exit values climbed to $468.32B—a welcome shift from 2023’s rock-bottom figures. But before anyone pops the champagne, let’s talk context: despite the uptick, exit activity remains far from its 2021 peak ($855.09B).

The takeaway? Dry powder is abundant, but the real challenge is finding the exits. 2021-style liquidity events aren’t back (yet), but dealmakers are adapting—whether through creative structuring, secondary sales, or just a whole lot of patience.

Check out the chart below for a closer look at the numbers driving private equity’s latest liquidity play.

PanaMAGA: M&A Meets Geopolitics

BlackRock just bought two Panama Canal ports, and somehow it’s also a U.S. foreign policy move. The deal, part of a buyout from Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison, was spotlighted by Donald Trump as an effort to “reclaim” the waterway—never mind that the U.S. gave up control in 1999.

The transaction aligns with Washington’s broader strategy to curb China’s influence in Latin America, with Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio framing it as a win for American interests. It’s not every day a PE deal doubles as a geopolitical chess move, but BlackRock just made that play. Whether this means more U.S. investment in critical infrastructure abroad—or just more political theater—remains to be seen.

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Opportunistic Credit’s Big Guns Are Locked and Loaded

Private credit isn’t just growing—it’s flexing. Oaktree, Blackstone, Apollo, and Fortress are all raising multi-billion-dollar funds, with Oaktree leading the charge at $18B. The market is hungry for distressed debt, special situations, and complex credit plays, and these war chests are primed to deploy capital where banks won’t tread.

But while the capital inflows are massive, so are the risks. High rates and market uncertainty mean these funds need to be as sharp as ever in underwriting and structuring deals. For investors, the big question is: Are these funds gearing up for a golden era—or just catching falling knives?

Check out the full lineup of the biggest opportunistic credit funds in the market below.

Trump’s Trade Whiplash and the USMCA Deficit

Trump hit Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs, then partially reversed course two days later. The reason? Businesses and markets hate uncertainty almost as much as they hate higher costs.

The chart shows a persistent US trade deficit with its neighbors, with Mexican imports surging under USMCA. Some blame Chinese goods rerouting through Mexico, which Trump aims to curb—while keeping everyone guessing.

With exemptions lasting just 30 days, businesses now face a monthly game of tariff roulette—not exactly a winning economic strategy.

The Week America Hit Pause on Banking

On March 6, 1933—just 36 hours after taking office—Franklin D. Roosevelt did the unthinkable: he shut down the entire U.S. banking system. No withdrawals, no transfers, no banking business of any kind. It was a financial freeze designed to stop a full-blown collapse. Banks had been failing for years, but by early 1933, the crisis hit critical mass. Gold reserves were vanishing, panic withdrawals were accelerating, and even the Federal Reserve was throwing up its hands. So Roosevelt called a timeout, forced Congress into emergency action, and restructured the system on the fly.

One week later, deposits flowed back into banks instead of out. The result? A temporary fix that stabilized the system, restored public confidence, and paved the way for financial reforms that still shape banking today.

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